CDFW Drafts Alternatives For 2025 Ocean Salmon Fishing, Including Full Closure Possibility Again

The Pacific Marine Fishery Council is meeting this week in Vancouver, Washington, where state agencies will listen to data and create multiple proposals for the 2025 salmon season. The PFMC will again meet next month to make final determinations for West Coast waters. While the buzz has been that a very limited season could be in the cards for the California coast, there’s also a sense that a third straight closure of ocean and inland waters would help the low counts that prompted the shutting down of fishing both in 2023 and 2024.

Here is some data from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife from the meeting regarding the status of Sacramento River fall-run salmon:

Despite the conservative approach taken by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) the past two seasons to close fisheries off the California coast in 2023 and 2024, apprehension remains regarding the status of California’s Chinook populations. The persistent low abundance of Klamath and Sacramento River Fall Chinook target stocks, coupled with concerns surrounding other weak California stocks, and uncertainty in existing modeling and management tools calls for resource managers to once again use caution when considering fishing opportunity for 2025. In light of these circumstances, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) offers recommendations to the Council on the development of season alternatives for 2025 ocean salmon fisheries.

Sacramento River Fall Chinook (SRFC)

The ocean abundance forecast for SRFC is 165,700, which is lower than the 2023 and 2024 ocean abundance forecasts that ultimately resulted in full closures for California’s ocean salmon fisheries. SRFC have not met the minimum spawner escapement floor of 122,000 hatchery and natural area adults in seven out of the last ten years, and although the stock is not currently overfished, the geometric mean of the last three years of SRFC returns was not far above the federal threshold for an overfished designation.

For decades, the Upper Sacramento River has been a significant source of natural-area production for the stock. Adult escapement to Upper Sacramento natural areas was alarmingly low again last fall, marking the third year in a row with less than 10,000 adults returning, whereas the preceding 10-year average was about 45,000 adults (Review of 2024 Ocean Salmon Fisheries, Table B-1). Low escapements to Coleman National Fish Hatchery resulted in failure to meet the hatchery’s fall egg take goals, requiring unprecedented egg transfers from out of basin hatcheries in each of the last two years in attempt to meet minimum production goals.

Forecast performance of the Sacramento Index (SI) ocean abundance forecast and projected spawner escapements continue to be a concern for CDFW, mirroring concerns raised in the March 2025 Guidance Letter from the National Marine Fisheries Service (E.3.b Supplemental NMFS Report 1). The SI has been over forecasted in eight out of the last ten years, and in 2024, the preseason forecast of the SI (213,600) was 207 percent of the postseason estimate (103,000). Projected SRFC spawner escapement has also been over forecasted in nine out of the last ten years, with three projections of spawner escapement during those years being overestimated by more than 300% (Table 1). Consequences of modeling error are magnified at low levels of abundance, as falling outside the slim margin of error can have dire consequences to the stock.

Of the Klamath River fall-run Chinook, CDFW had this to say:

KRFC continue to be classified as overfished for the seventh consecutive year due to persistent low spawner returns, with eight out of the last ten years falling below the minimum spawner escapement floor of 40,700 natural area adult spawners. The ocean abundance forecast of 82,700 is also lower than the forecasts preceding the last two years of fishery closures, with a forecast of 180,700 in 2024 and 104,800 in 2023. KRFC experienced similar over forecasting of escapement as described in NMFS’ guidance letter. Spawner abundance has been on average 32 percent below the escapement goal of 40,700 natural area adults associated with the Pacific Coast Salmon Fishery Management Plan (Salmon FMP) objective since 2016 (E.3.b Supplemental NMFS Report 1, Table 2). Additionally, despite the Council’s recommendation not to exceed an exploitation rate on KRFC of 20 percent in 2024, and despite the complete closure of California fisheries, the stock experienced 23 percent exploitation in 2024.

CDFW recognizes the 2025 NMFS’ guidance that fisheries be planned so as not to exceed a 10 percent de minimis exploitation rate, which is the maximum that the Salmon FMP allows per the harvest control rule. However, the guidance then adds an additional note that the Council may recommend lower exploitation rates as needed to address uncertainties or other year specific circumstances, and when setting a de minimis exploitation rate, is required to specifically consider eight additional factors, as identified in the Salmon FMP. CDFW has evaluated these factors and believes Council consideration of an even lower level of exploitation may be warranted in 2025 fisheries planning in light of recent uncertainty observed in abundance forecasts and management tools, a new and more pessimistic understanding of stock productivity, and KRFC’s continuing overfished status. While we are extremely optimistic about the benefits of dam removal, not enough time has elapsed to realize the anticipated benefits to KRFC.

So it’s not a shocker that the alternatives include a full of closure of waters from the California-Oregon border south all the way down the coast, but also as far as north as Cape Falcon in Oregon, given that the two states in the past have shared kings that spawn in rivers on both sides of the border.

CDFW sees value in exploring the possibility of ocean salmon season alternatives in 2025 to have the information necessary to weigh the risks and benefits of the options in order to make informed choices. CDFW recommends that at least one of the three season alternatives adopted by the Council for public review be no harvest of SRFC and KRFC in all ocean fisheries South of Cape Falcon in order to maximize escapement in 2025 and recruitment to future fisheries. A no-fishing alternative should be considered as a possible outcome of the 2025 fishery planning process.

Still, as criticism has grown about the state’s water policy and the lack of returning Chinook, it’s interesating to note CDFW has also suggested some semblance of open fishing seasons for 2025:

However, the alternatives should also include limited ocean salmon seasons South of Cape Falcon. Further, CDFW recommends applying an ocean/inland sharing arrangement to set aside a minimum 15% of the available SRFC harvestable surplus for inland fisheries in these alternatives. In years where SRFC abundance is low enough to significantly constrain ocean fisheries, it becomes necessary to set the inland fishery share to a proportion of the total harvestable surplus rather than the default modeling practices that project inland fishery harvest as a proportion of the total inriver run size. This recommendation is based on the historical average of SRFC harvest between the ocean and inland sectors, and CDFW has specified a similar inriver share in prior years of low abundance.

The council’s next meeting period that will render a decision over the fate of the ocean fishing season will take place from April 10-15.